· Analysis updated 21:34 UTC
Bradford (Park Avenue) vs Lancaster City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Bradford (Park Avenue) and 1.10 for Lancaster City, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives Bradford (Park Avenue) the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bradford (Park Avenue) win
53.9% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bradford (Park Avenue) home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lancaster City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bradford (Park Avenue) to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Bradford (Park Avenue) and 1.10 for Lancaster City, a combined 2.91 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–16.0%
Recent form
Bradford (Park Avenue)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Guiseley AFC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lancaster City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Curzon Ashton · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stalybridge Celtic · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gainsborough Trinity · 2-0 (W)
Lancaster City
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Warrington Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Avro · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilkeston Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Whitby Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cleethorpes Town · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bradford (Park Avenue) win, at 53.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.