Valley Parade · Analysis updated 06:45 UTC
Bradford vs York Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Bradford and 0.75 for York, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Bradford the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bradford win
79.1% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bradford home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bradford to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 13% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for Bradford and 0.75 for York, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 49%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.4%
- 3–010.5%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–08.3%
- 3–17.9%
Recent form
Bradford
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oxford United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Burton Albion · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stevenage · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leyton Orient · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rotherham · 4-0 (W)
York
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Port Vale · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Accrington ST · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Northampton · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gillingham · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bradford win, at 79.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.