Braintree vs Hampton & Richmond Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Braintree and 1.50 for Hampton & Richmond, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Braintree the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Braintree win

48.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.98 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Braintree home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hampton & Richmond away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Braintree to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Braintree and 1.50 for Hampton & Richmond, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Braintree win49%

Draw22%

Hampton & Richmond win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.2%
2–19.1%
1–26.9%
2–26.8%
1–06.1%

Recent form

Braintree

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Truro City · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Walton & Hersham · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorking Wanderers · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Needham Market · 3-0 (W)

Hampton & Richmond

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Crowborough Athletic · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crowborough Athletic · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelmsford City · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Farnborough · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League - South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	11	7	1	3	8	22
2	Salisbury	11	6	3	2	12	21
3	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	11	21
4	Truro City	11	6	3	2	9	21
5	Dagenham & Redbridge	11	6	2	3	3	20
6	Ebbsfleet United	8	5	3	0	11	18
7	Weston-super-Mare	11	5	3	3	8	18
8	Dover	11	5	3	3	1	18
9	Tonbridge Angels	11	5	2	4	9	17
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	4	5	2	6	17
11	Farnham Town	11	5	2	4	1	17
12	Torquay	11	4	4	3	3	16
13	Chelmsford City	10	2	8	0	6	14
14	Hemel Hempstead Town	11	3	5	3	0	14
15	Folkestone Invicta	11	3	4	4	3	13
16	Maidenhead	11	3	4	4	0	13
17	Horsham	10	2	5	3	-2	11
18	Farnborough	10	3	2	5	-9	11
19	Chesham United	11	3	1	7	-8	10
20	Braintree	11	3	1	7	-9	10
21	AFC Totton	11	3	1	7	-13	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	2	2	7	-15	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	2	2	7	-17	8
24	Slough Town	11	1	1	9	-18	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Braintree win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.