Rare Breed Meat Co. Stadium · Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
Braintree vs Maidstone Utd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Braintree and 2.38 for Maidstone Utd, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Maidstone Utd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Maidstone Utd win
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Braintree home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maidstone Utd away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.7%
- 1–18.1%
- 1–37.6%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Braintree
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Truro City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Walton & Hersham · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorking Wanderers · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Needham Market · 3-0 (W)
Maidstone Utd
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Truro City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cray Wanderers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cray Wanderers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Braintree · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Tonbridge Angels · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Braintree 2-1 Maidstone Utd (National League - South)
- 2024-01-23T19:45:00.000Z · Braintree 1-1 Maidstone Utd (National League - South)
- 2023-08-15T18:45:00.000Z · Braintree 1-2 Maidstone Utd (National League - South)
- 2022-03-19T15:00:00.000Z · Braintree 1-2 Maidstone Utd (National League - South)
- 2022-03-08T19:45:00.000Z · Braintree 0-1 Maidstone Utd (National League - South)
- 2021-01-19T19:45:00.000Z · Braintree 2-0 Maidstone Utd (National League - South)
- 2020-02-08T15:00:00.000Z · Braintree 0-1 Maidstone Utd (National League - South)
- 2019-10-29T19:45:00.000Z · Braintree 1-1 Maidstone Utd (National League - South)
- 2019-04-19T14:00:00.000Z · Braintree 2-0 Maidstone Utd (National League)
National League - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | Ebbsfleet United | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 | Salisbury | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 | Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Truro City | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 6 | Tonbridge Angels | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 20 |
| 7 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Weston-super-Mare | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Dover | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 10 | Dorking Wanderers | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 17 |
| 11 | Farnham Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | Folkestone Invicta | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 13 | Torquay | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Chelmsford City | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 15 | Horsham | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 17 | Farnborough | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 18 | Maidenhead | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 19 | Chesham United | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
| 20 | Braintree | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -14 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maidstone Utd win, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.