Braintree vs Torquay Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Braintree and 2.31 for Torquay, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Torquay the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Torquay win

54.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.57 – 2.31

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Braintree home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Torquay to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 26% / 20% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for Braintree and 2.31 for Torquay, a combined 3.88 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 71%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Braintree win26%

Draw20%

Torquay win55%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–28.7%
1–17.5%
2–26.8%
1–36.7%
2–15.9%

Recent form

Braintree

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Farnham Town · 0-6 (L)
2026-10-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs West Ham United U21 · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Truro City · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Walton & Hersham · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds · 1-2 (L)

Torquay

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Maidstone Utd · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxford City · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slough Town · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tonbridge Angels · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Billericay Town · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League - South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	13	8	2	3	9	26
2	Ebbsfleet United	11	7	4	0	20	25
3	Truro City	12	7	3	2	10	24
4	Dagenham & Redbridge	13	7	2	4	3	23
5	Salisbury	12	6	4	2	12	22
6	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	11	21
7	Tonbridge Angels	13	6	3	4	10	21
8	Dorking Wanderers	12	5	5	2	8	20
9	Farnham Town	12	6	2	4	7	20
10	Folkestone Invicta	13	5	4	4	6	19
11	Dover	12	5	4	3	1	19
12	Weston-super-Mare	12	5	3	4	3	18
13	Horsham	13	4	6	3	0	18
14	Torquay	12	4	5	3	3	17
15	Chelmsford City	11	2	9	0	6	15
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	13	3	5	5	-3	14
17	Farnborough	12	4	2	6	-9	14
18	Maidenhead	13	3	4	6	-5	13
19	AFC Totton	13	4	1	8	-12	13
20	Chesham United	12	3	1	8	-10	10
21	Braintree	12	3	1	8	-15	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	12	2	2	8	-16	8
23	Walton & Hersham	12	2	2	8	-18	8
24	Slough Town	13	1	1	11	-21	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Torquay win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.