Varden Amfi · Analysis updated 13:09 UTC
Brann II vs Vard Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.24 expected goals for Brann II and 2.12 for Vard, a combined total of 4.37. That distribution gives Brann II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
2.24 – 2.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brann II home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vard away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brann II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 20% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.24 goals for Brann II and 2.12 for Vard, a combined 4.37 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–26.4%
- 1–16.0%
- 3–25.4%
Recent form
Brann II
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Varegg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Askøy · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Fyllingsdalen · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Åsane II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vard · 4-4 (D)
Vard
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Åsane II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Stord · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fana · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sogndal II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Førde · 9-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.