Brann vs Aarhus Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Brann and 0.93 for Aarhus, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Brann the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Brann win

55.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Brann home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aarhus away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brann to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Brann and 0.93 for Aarhus, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Brann win56%

Draw24%

Aarhus win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–012.3%
1–111.4%
2–010.5%
2–19.7%
0–07.2%

Recent form

Brann

2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Kauno Žalgiris · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Valerenga · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Viking · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Start · 1-2 (L)

Aarhus

2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Copenhagen · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Gent · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sonderjyske · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vendsyssel FF · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	FC Lugano	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Trabzonspor	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Twente	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Monaco	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	St. Truiden	2	2	0	0	3	6
8	HNK Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Brighton	2	1	1	0	4	4
10	FC Copenhagen	2	1	1	0	3	4
11	Universitatea Craiova	2	1	1	0	2	4
12	Mjallby AIF	2	1	1	0	2	4
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	1	3
14	Borac Banja Luka	2	1	0	1	1	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	SC Braga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Gent	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	SC Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	FC Nordsjaelland	2	0	2	0	0	2
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	2	0	2	0	0	2
21	Riga	2	0	2	0	0	2
22	FK Crvena Zvezda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	CSKA Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	FK Jablonec	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	FC Midtjylland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Aarhus	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Heart Of Midlothian	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	2	0	1	1	-2	1
30	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	1
31	Kairat Almaty	2	0	1	1	-4	1
32	FC Thun	2	0	0	2	-2	0
33	Lincoln Red Imps FC	2	0	0	2	-4	0
34	KuPS	2	0	0	2	-4	0
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	0	0	2	-4	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Brann win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.