Brann Stadion · Referee Sigurd Smehus Kringstad, Norway · Analysis updated 16:13 UTC
Brann vs Valerenga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Brann and 1.55 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Brann the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.1% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brann home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Valerenga away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
Brann
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Viking · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Start · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Os · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Start · 0-2 (L)
Valerenga
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Fredrikstad · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Skeid · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lillestrom · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarpsborg 08 FF · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Molde · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-26T12:30:00.000Z · Brann 2-3 Valerenga (Eliteserien)
- 2025-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · Brann 3-2 Valerenga (Eliteserien)
- 2025-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · Brann 4-2 Valerenga (Eliteserien)
- 2025-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · Brann 2-1 Valerenga (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-02-27T15:00:00.000Z · Brann 3-0 Valerenga (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-10-08T17:15:00.000Z · Brann 2-1 Valerenga (Eliteserien)
- 2023-07-12T18:00:00.000Z · Brann 2-3 Valerenga (NM Cupen)
- 2023-04-22T16:00:00.000Z · Brann 3-1 Valerenga (Eliteserien)
- 2023-03-03T13:30:00.000Z · Brann 3-1 Valerenga (Friendlies Clubs)
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 53 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 53 |
| 3 | Tromso | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 39 |
| 4 | Molde | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 37 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 34 |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | -1 | 33 |
| 7 | Brann | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 29 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -7 | 29 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 28 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -9 | 28 |
| 11 | Ham-Kam | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -13 | 26 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -6 | 24 |
| 13 | Valerenga | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | -15 | 21 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -21 | 19 |
| 16 | Start | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -24 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.