Brann Stadion · Referee Sigurd Smehus Kringstad, Norway · Analysis updated 02:39 UTC
Brann vs Valerenga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Brann and 1.46 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives Brann the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws roughly 40% of the time.
Model pick
Brann to Win
60.2% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 3–17.2%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–26.4%
- 2–05.9%
Why the model likes this
Valerenga away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brann to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 19% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Brann and 1.46 for Valerenga, a combined 3.97 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 71%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Brann
Valerenga
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ham-Kam · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Brann · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromso · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 41 |
| 2 | Viking | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 40 |
| 3 | Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 34 |
| 4 | Lillestrom | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 26 |
| 5 | Molde | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 24 |
| 6 | Rosenborg | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
| 7 | Brann | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 22 |
| 8 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 22 |
| 9 | Ham-Kam | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 22 |
| 10 | Valerenga | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 20 |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 20 |
| 12 | KFUM Oslo | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 | Sandefjord | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -9 | 15 |
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -11 | 15 |
| 15 | Aalesund | 16 | 2 | 8 | 6 | -14 | 14 |
| 16 | Start | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | -22 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.