Brann W vs Fortuna Ålesund W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Brann W and 1.70 for Fortuna Ålesund W, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Brann W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 1.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Brann W home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fortuna Ålesund W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brann W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 22% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Brann W and 1.70 for Fortuna Ålesund W, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Brann W win43%

Draw22%

Fortuna Ålesund W win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–18.8%
2–18.4%
1–27.5%
2–27.1%
3–15.3%

Recent form

Brann W

2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyn W · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria Wien W · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria Wien W · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Røa W · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hønefoss W · 3-0 (W)

Fortuna Ålesund W

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Molde W · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodø / Glimt W · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hønefoss W · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Haugesund W · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyn W · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · Brann W 2-1 Fortuna Ålesund W (Toppserien)

Toppserien table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Brann W	20	16	3	1	49	51
2	Fortuna Ålesund W	20	16	2	2	31	50
3	Rosenborg W	20	12	6	2	15	42
4	Vålerenga W	20	12	2	6	23	38
5	Lyn W	20	9	5	6	12	32
6	Stabæk W	20	8	3	9	14	27
7	Haugesund W	20	7	3	10	-16	24
8	Hønefoss W	20	5	4	11	-15	19
9	Molde W	20	5	3	12	-16	18
10	Røa W	20	4	5	11	-19	17
11	LSK Kvinner W	20	4	3	13	-17	15
12	Bodø / Glimt W	20	1	3	16	-61	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.