· Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
Brasil DE Pelotas vs Bagé Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Brasil DE Pelotas and 0.67 for Bagé, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Brasil DE Pelotas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brasil DE Pelotas win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
1.41 – 0.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bagé away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brasil DE Pelotas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 27% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Brasil DE Pelotas and 0.67 for Bagé, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 37%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.6%
- 0–012.5%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–18.4%
Recent form
Brasil DE Pelotas
Bagé
- 2026-07-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gramadense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gramadense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Farroupilha · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarany de Bagé · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Brasil DE Pelotas · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Gaúcha table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brasil DE Pelotas | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Gramadense | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Santa Cruz RS | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Bagé | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Guarany de Bagé | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Monsoon | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | Brasil Farroupilha | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Farroupilha | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brasil DE Pelotas win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.