· Analysis updated 16:11 UTC
Brasil DE Pelotas vs Guarany de Bagé Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Brasil DE Pelotas and 0.73 for Guarany de Bagé, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Brasil DE Pelotas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brasil DE Pelotas win
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guarany de Bagé away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brasil DE Pelotas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 22% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Brasil DE Pelotas and 0.73 for Guarany de Bagé, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.3%
- 2–012.9%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Brasil DE Pelotas
Guarany de Bagé
- 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Brasil DE Pelotas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-06-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bagé · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cianorte · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Farroupilha · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Joinville · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Gaúcha table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brasil DE Pelotas | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Gramadense | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Santa Cruz RS | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Bagé | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Guarany de Bagé | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Monsoon | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | Brasil Farroupilha | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Farroupilha | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brasil DE Pelotas win, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.