· Analysis updated 14:09 UTC
Brasília U20 vs Grêmio Valparaíso U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Brasília U20 and 2.50 for Grêmio Valparaíso U20, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives Brasília U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
59.2% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brasília U20 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grêmio Valparaíso U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brasília U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 18% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Brasília U20 and 2.50 for Grêmio Valparaíso U20, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.6%
- 2–35.5%
- 3–25.5%
- 1–25.3%
- 2–15.3%
Recent form
Brasília U20
- 2026-07-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Canaã U20 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-07-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Luziânia U20 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-07-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ceilandense U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Planaltina DF U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Maria U20 · 1-2 (L)
Grêmio Valparaíso U20
- 2026-07-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ceilândia U20 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-07-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Planaltina DF U20 · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-07-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro U20 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Maria U20 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Canaã U20 · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · Brasília U20 3-2 Grêmio Valparaíso U20 (Brasiliense U20)
Brasiliense U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brasiliense U20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 9 |
| 2 | Legiao U20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Sobradinho U20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 |
| 4 | Taguatinga U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Capital TO U20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 6 | Samambaia U20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Gama U20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Brazlândia FC SAF U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | CFZ Brasilia U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 3 |
| 10 | ARUC U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -14 | 0 |
| 11 | Planaltina U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -21 | 0 |
| 1 | Planaltina DF U20 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12 |
| 2 | Grêmio Valparaíso U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Canaã U20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Real Brasília U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Brasília U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Paranoa U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 8 | Ceilandense U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 4 |
| 9 | Santa Maria U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 10 | Luziânia U20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 11 | Ceilândia U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 59.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.