Stadion Stozice · Referee Z. Jazbec · Analysis updated 20:44 UTC
Bravo vs Celje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Bravo and 1.38 for Celje, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Celje the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.0% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bravo home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Celje away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Bravo
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Gorica · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpija Ljubljana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Celje · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Aluminij · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Mura · 2-0 (W)
Celje
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Aluminij · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mura · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Bravo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Koper · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · Bravo 2-1 Celje (1. SNL)
- 2026-05-02T18:15:00.000Z · Bravo 3-2 Celje (1. SNL)
- 2026-03-01T16:30:00.000Z · Bravo 1-0 Celje (1. SNL)
- 2025-11-09T16:30:00.000Z · Bravo 0-0 Celje (1. SNL)
- 2025-08-24T18:15:00.000Z · Bravo 0-5 Celje (1. SNL)
- 2025-04-06T15:30:00.000Z · Bravo 1-2 Celje (1. SNL)
- 2025-02-01T14:00:00.000Z · Bravo 3-2 Celje (1. SNL)
- 2024-09-28T15:30:00.000Z · Bravo 3-2 Celje (1. SNL)
- 2024-07-21T18:15:00.000Z · Bravo 1-2 Celje (1. SNL)
- 2024-04-10T12:45:00.000Z · Bravo 1-2 Celje (1. SNL)
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 23 |
| 2 | Koper | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Bravo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Nafta | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Celje | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | Mura | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | Radomlje | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.