Aspire Zone · Analysis updated 03:28 UTC
Brazil U17 vs Italy U17 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Brazil U17 and 1.30 for Italy U17, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Brazil U17 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brazil U17 win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brazil U17 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Italy U17 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brazil U17 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Brazil U17 and 1.30 for Italy U17, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–07.1%
Recent form
Brazil U17
- 2026-08-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezuela U17 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-10T23:00:00.000Z · H vs United States U17 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs United States U17 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-19T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Ecuador U17 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-16T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Colombia U17 · 0-3 (L)
Italy U17
- 2026-06-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgium U17 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Spain U17 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-01T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Denmark U17 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-05-29T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Montenegro U17 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-26T11:30:00.000Z · H vs France U17 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup - U17 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brazil U17 win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.