Estadio Municipal de Piedrabuena · Referee Andrés Nadal · Analysis updated 15:58 UTC
Brea vs Caspe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for Brea and 0.88 for Caspe, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Brea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brea win
56.4% probability
Expected goals
1.69 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brea home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Caspe away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.69 goals for Brea and 0.88 for Caspe, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.7%
Recent form
Brea
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs La Almunia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CDJ Tamarite · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Andorra CF · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Sietamo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Illueca · 3-0 (W)
Caspe
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cuarte · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Épila · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Binéfar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Zaragoza II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Huesca II · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Zaragoza II | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Ejea | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Brea | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Fraga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | Cuarte | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Épila | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Atlético Monzón | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Caspe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Almudévar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Binéfar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Huesca II | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | La Almunia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Illueca | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | CDJ Tamarite | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | CD Sietamo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Andorra CF | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Belchite 97 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
| 18 | Robres | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brea win, at 56.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.