· Analysis updated 14:25 UTC
Brea vs Robres Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.59 expected goals for Brea and 0.64 for Robres, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Brea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Brea win
79.3% probability
Expected goals
2.59 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brea home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Robres away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 14% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.59 goals for Brea and 0.64 for Robres, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.3%
- 3–011.5%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–18.5%
- 4–07.4%
Recent form
Brea
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Andorra CF · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Sietamo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Illueca · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Belchite 97 · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-05-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Caspe · 0-0 (D)
Robres
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Épila · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Binéfar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Zaragoza II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Huesca II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Monzón · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Zaragoza II | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Ejea | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Brea | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Fraga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | Cuarte | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Épila | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Atlético Monzón | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Caspe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Almudévar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Binéfar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Huesca II | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | La Almunia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Illueca | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | CDJ Tamarite | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | CD Sietamo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Andorra CF | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Belchite 97 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
| 18 | Robres | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brea win, at 79.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.