· Analysis updated 10:56 UTC
Bregalnica Štip vs Pobeda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.62 expected goals for Bregalnica Štip and 0.58 for Pobeda, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Bregalnica Štip the largest share of the 1X2 market at 91%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 91% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bregalnica Štip win
90.5% probability
Expected goals
3.62 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bregalnica Štip home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pobeda away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
10%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–011.9%
- 4–010.8%
- 2–09.9%
- 5–07.8%
- 3–16.8%
Recent form
Bregalnica Štip
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Skopje · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Teteks · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Struga · 0-4 (L)
Pobeda
- 2026-05-23T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bregalnica Štip · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-05-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Vardar Negotino · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Teteks · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Osogovo · 1-8 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-23T14:30:00.000Z · Bregalnica Štip 7-0 Pobeda (Second League)
- 2025-11-29T12:00:00.000Z · Bregalnica Štip 4-0 Pobeda (Second League)
- 2025-02-15T13:00:00.000Z · Bregalnica Štip 0-0 Pobeda (Second League)
- 2024-08-17T15:00:00.000Z · Bregalnica Štip 2-1 Pobeda (Second League)
- 2023-03-12T13:00:00.000Z · Bregalnica Štip 4-0 Pobeda (First League)
- 2022-12-11T12:00:00.000Z · Bregalnica Štip 2-2 Pobeda (First League)
- 2022-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · Bregalnica Štip 0-1 Pobeda (First League)
- 2022-07-05T15:30:00.000Z · Bregalnica Štip 2-0 Pobeda (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-04-03T13:00:00.000Z · Bregalnica Štip 3-1 Pobeda (Second League)
- 2021-02-27T13:00:00.000Z · Bregalnica Štip 2-1 Pobeda (Second League)
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | FK Rabotnicki | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Pelister | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Akademija Pandev | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 15 |
| 5 | Teteks | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Belasica | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Kamjani | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Makedonija GjP | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Novaci | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Detonit Plachkovica | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Gorno Lisiče | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Osogovo | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Shkupi 1927 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bregalnica Štip win, at 90.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 91% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.