· Analysis updated 13:19 UTC
Bregalnica Štip vs Struga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.89 expected goals for Bregalnica Štip and 2.02 for Struga, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Struga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Struga win
63.5% probability
Expected goals
0.89 – 2.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bregalnica Štip home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Struga away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Struga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 16% / 21% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.89 goals for Bregalnica Štip and 2.02 for Struga, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.1%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 0–37.4%
Recent form
Bregalnica Štip
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Skopje · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Teteks · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Struga · 0-4 (L)
Struga
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aresimi · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tikveš · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sileks · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 2 | Struga | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 6 | Sileks | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -13 | 9 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Struga win, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.