· Referee E. I. Arnason · Analysis updated 15:58 UTC
Breidablik vs Stjarnan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Breidablik and 1.95 for Stjarnan, a combined total of 4.23. That distribution gives Breidablik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Breidablik win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Breidablik home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Stjarnan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Breidablik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 20% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Breidablik and 1.95 for Stjarnan, a combined 4.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.5%
- 1–26.3%
- 3–15.6%
Recent form
Breidablik
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs IA Akranes · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Fram Reykjavik · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Afturelding · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs KA Akureyri · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Stjarnan · 0-2 (L)
Stjarnan
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KA Akureyri · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FH hafnarfjordur · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-31T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Breidablik · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Úrvalsdeild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 46 | 53 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 45 |
| 3 | KR Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 44 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | IA Akranes | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 28 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 27 |
| 9 | FH hafnarfjordur | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | -12 | 21 |
| 10 | Thor Akureyri | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -28 | 21 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -13 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Breidablik win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.