Wheatsheaf Park · Analysis updated 08:45 UTC
Brentford U21 vs Cardiff City U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Brentford U21 and 1.25 for Cardiff City U21, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Brentford U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brentford U21 win
55.3% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brentford U21 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cardiff City U21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brentford U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 21% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Brentford U21 and 1.25 for Cardiff City U21, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–07.7%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Brentford U21
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Derby County U21 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Milton Keynes Dons · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bromley · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United U21 · 2-3 (L)
Cardiff City U21
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Peterborough United U21 · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield United U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Plymouth U21 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Wednesday U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigan Athletic U21 · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Professional Development League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Res. | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Coventry City U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Sheffield United U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Cardiff City U21 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Bristol City U21 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | Swansea City U21 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Wigan Athletic U21 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Barnsley U21 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Peterborough United U21 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Colchester United U21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Hull City U21 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Millwall U21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brentford U21 win, at 55.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.