Brentford Community Stadium · Referee Andy Madley, England · Analysis updated 13:18 UTC
Brentford vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Brentford and 1.30 for Chelsea, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Chelsea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brentford home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chelsea away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–17.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.70 (model 48.1% vs market 34.1%, edge +14.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.70 | 34.1% | 48.1% | 2.08 | +14.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 72.6% | 73.3% | 1.36 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.50 | 37.4% | 37.8% | 2.65 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.7% | 26.7% | 3.75 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 62.4% | 62.2% | 1.61 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.60 | 35.9% | 35.5% | 2.82 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 65.0% | 64.5% | 1.55 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 65.9% | 51.9% | 1.93 | -14.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Brentford
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Reading · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 2-2 (D)
Chelsea
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Brentford · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · Brentford 3-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2026-01-17T15:00:00.000Z · Brentford 0-2 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2025-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · Brentford 2-2 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2025-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · Brentford 0-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2024-12-15T19:00:00.000Z · Brentford 1-2 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2024-03-02T15:00:00.000Z · Brentford 2-2 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2023-10-28T11:30:00.000Z · Brentford 2-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2023-04-26T18:45:00.000Z · Brentford 2-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2022-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · Brentford 0-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2022-04-02T14:00:00.000Z · Brentford 4-1 Chelsea (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Everton | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Hull City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Tottenham | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | Coventry | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 19 | Nottingham Forest | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.