Brentford Community Stadium · Analysis updated 03:42 UTC
Brentford vs Fulham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Brentford and 0.88 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Brentford the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Brentford win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brentford home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Fulham away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–011.4%
- 0–19.9%
- 2–09.6%
Recent form
Brentford
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Reading · 2-1 (W)
Fulham
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T11:30:00.000Z · Brentford 0-0 Fulham (Premier League)
- 2025-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · Brentford 1-3 Fulham (Premier League)
- 2025-05-18T14:00:00.000Z · Brentford 2-3 Fulham (Premier League)
- 2024-11-04T20:00:00.000Z · Brentford 1-2 Fulham (Premier League)
- 2024-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · Brentford 0-0 Fulham (Premier League)
- 2023-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · Brentford 3-0 Fulham (Premier League)
- 2023-07-23T20:00:00.000Z · Brentford 2-3 Fulham (Premier League - Summer Series)
- 2023-03-06T20:00:00.000Z · Brentford 3-2 Fulham (Premier League)
- 2022-08-20T14:00:00.000Z · Brentford 2-3 Fulham (Premier League)
- 2020-10-01T16:30:00.000Z · Brentford 3-0 Fulham (League Cup)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 10 | Hull City | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Manchester United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brentford win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.