Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Brentford and 0.98 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Brentford the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Brentford win

54.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Brentford home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nottingham Forest away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Brentford win54%

Draw24%

Nottingham Forest win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.7%
1–111.4%
2–010.0%
2–19.7%
0–06.9%

Recent form

Brentford

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Reading · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 1-1 (D)

Nottingham Forest

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Coventry · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-01-25T14:00:00.000Z · Brentford 0-2 Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
2025-08-17T13:00:00.000Z · Brentford 1-3 Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
2025-05-01T18:30:00.000Z · Brentford 2-0 Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
2024-12-21T15:00:00.000Z · Brentford 0-2 Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
2024-01-20T17:30:00.000Z · Brentford 3-2 Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
2023-10-01T13:00:00.000Z · Brentford 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
2023-04-29T14:00:00.000Z · Brentford 2-1 Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
2022-11-05T15:00:00.000Z · Brentford 2-2 Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
2021-03-20T12:30:00.000Z · Brentford 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Championship)
2020-12-12T15:00:00.000Z · Brentford 3-1 Nottingham Forest (Championship)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Brentford win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.