· Analysis updated 06:57 UTC
Brentwood Town vs Concord Rangers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Brentwood Town and 1.41 for Concord Rangers, a combined total of 3.69. That distribution gives Brentwood Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brentwood Town win
57.0% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brentwood Town home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Concord Rangers away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brentwood Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 20% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Brentwood Town and 1.41 for Concord Rangers, a combined 3.69 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.0%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–06.5%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Brentwood Town
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chatham Town · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Whyteleafe · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hashtag United · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Maldon & Tiptree · 5-1 (W)
Concord Rangers
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Winslow United · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Brentwood Town · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentwood Town · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Witham Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hastings United · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brentwood Town win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.