· Analysis updated 16:53 UTC
Brentwood Town vs Stanway Rovers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.47 expected goals for Brentwood Town and 1.06 for Stanway Rovers, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Brentwood Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brentwood Town win
68.1% probability
Expected goals
2.47 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brentwood Town home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stanway Rovers away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brentwood Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 17% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.47 goals for Brentwood Town and 1.06 for Stanway Rovers, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–17.8%
- 1–17.7%
- 3–07.3%
Recent form
Brentwood Town
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chatham Town · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Whyteleafe · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hashtag United · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Maldon & Tiptree · 5-1 (W)
Stanway Rovers
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Faversham Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Brentwood Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Whyteleafe · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Needham Market · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Needham Market · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Isthmian table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Welling United | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Lewes | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 26 |
| 4 | Chatham Town | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 24 |
| 5 | Dartford | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 24 |
| 6 | Ramsgate | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Eastbourne Borough | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 22 |
| 8 | Carshalton Athletic | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 9 | Burgess Hill Town | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Wingate & Finchley | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 11 | Dulwich Hamlet | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | St Albans City | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 13 | Leatherhead | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 14 | Whyteleafe | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 | Cheshunt | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 15 |
| 16 | Aveley | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -1 | 14 |
| 17 | Maldon & Tiptree | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -17 | 14 |
| 18 | Cray Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 19 | Brentwood Town | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 20 | Three Bridges | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 9 |
| 21 | Stanway Rovers | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -20 | 7 |
| 22 | Whitehawk | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brentwood Town win, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.