· Analysis updated 17:42 UTC
Brežice vs Beltinci Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Brežice and 1.95 for Beltinci, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Beltinci the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Beltinci win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brežice home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Beltinci away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beltinci to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 29% / 22% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Brežice and 1.95 for Beltinci, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–16.9%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.3%
Recent form
Brežice
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Krško · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jesenice · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Primorje · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Ljubljana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudar · 3-4 (L)
Beltinci
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Dren Vrhnika · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bilje · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilirija · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Krka · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tabor Sežana · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Beltinci | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Triglav | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 25 |
| 4 | Rudar | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Bilje | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 6 | Jesenice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Bistrica | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 8 | Slovan Ljubljana | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 | Ilirija | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | Dekani | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Dren Vrhnika | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Primorje | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Krško | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 9 |
| 14 | Dravinja | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 15 | Krka | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 16 | Brežice | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Beltinci win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.