· Analysis updated 14:17 UTC
Brežice vs Rudar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Brežice and 1.42 for Rudar, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Rudar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.3% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brežice home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rudar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rudar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 29% / 27% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Brežice and 1.42 for Rudar, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.9%
- 0–28.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 49.9% vs market 41.6%, edge +8.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 41.6% | 49.9% | 2.00 | +8.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.73 | 53.8% | 55.2% | 1.81 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 3.10 | 28.3% | 28.7% | 3.48 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 26.6% | 26.5% | 3.77 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.95 | 45.0% | 44.8% | 2.23 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.30 | 71.6% | 71.3% | 1.40 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.5% | 73.5% | 1.36 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 58.4% | 50.1% | 2.00 | -8.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Brežice
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Krško · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jesenice · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Primorje · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Ljubljana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudar · 3-4 (L)
Rudar
- 2026-10-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tabor Sežana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bistrica · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dravinja · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Brežice · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Triglav · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Beltinci | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Triglav | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 25 |
| 4 | Rudar | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Bilje | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 6 | Jesenice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Bistrica | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 8 | Slovan Ljubljana | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 | Ilirija | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | Dekani | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Dren Vrhnika | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Primorje | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Krško | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 9 |
| 14 | Dravinja | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 15 | Krka | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 16 | Brežice | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.