· Analysis updated 12:47 UTC
Brežice vs Zavrč Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Brežice and 1.45 for Zavrč, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Brežice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brežice win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brežice home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zavrč away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brežice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Brežice and 1.45 for Zavrč, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Brežice
- 2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aluminij · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Krško · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jesenice · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Primorje · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Ljubljana · 0-1 (L)
Zavrč
- 2026-05-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Brežice · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Čarda Martjanci · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rače · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Podvinci · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-04-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Fužinar · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. SNL - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Odranci | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Fužinar | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | NK Ormoz | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | Šmartno | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Hajdina | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Čarda Martjanci | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Videm | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Podvinci | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Rače | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Korotan Prevalje | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Dobrovce | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 9 |
| 12 | Ljutomer | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Limbuš Pekre | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 14 | Šampion Celje | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brežice win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.