Amex Stadium · Referee Darren England, England · Analysis updated 21:48 UTC
Brighton vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Brighton and 1.73 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arsenal win
55.2% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brighton home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.6%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 48.9% vs market 44.9%, edge +4.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 44.9% | 48.9% | 2.04 | +4.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.4% | 76.2% | 1.31 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.20 | 78.6% | 78.9% | 1.27 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 4.50 | 20.8% | 21.0% | 4.76 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 1.70 | 55.1% | 55.2% | 1.81 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 24.0% | 23.7% | 4.22 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.05 | 46.0% | 44.7% | 2.24 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.1% | 51.1% | 1.96 | -4.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Brighton
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 1-1 (D)
Arsenal
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-04T19:30:00.000Z · Brighton 0-1 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2025-12-27T15:00:00.000Z · Brighton 1-2 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2025-10-29T19:45:00.000Z · Brighton 0-2 Arsenal (League Cup)
- 2025-01-04T17:30:00.000Z · Brighton 1-1 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2024-08-31T11:30:00.000Z · Brighton 1-1 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2024-04-06T16:30:00.000Z · Brighton 0-3 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2023-12-17T14:00:00.000Z · Brighton 0-2 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2023-05-14T15:30:00.000Z · Brighton 3-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2022-12-31T17:30:00.000Z · Brighton 2-4 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2022-11-09T19:45:00.000Z · Brighton 3-1 Arsenal (League Cup)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arsenal win, at 55.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.