Amex Stadium · Referee R. Madley · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
Brighton vs AS Roma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.35 expected goals for Brighton and 2.85 for AS Roma, a combined total of 6.20. That distribution gives Brighton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 94% for over 2.5 goals and 90% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brighton win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
3.35 – 2.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brighton home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AS Roma away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brighton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 16% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.35 goals for Brighton and 2.85 for AS Roma, a combined 6.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–25.2%
- 3–34.9%
- 2–24.6%
- 2–34.4%
- 4–24.3%
Recent form
Brighton
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 1-1 (D)
AS Roma
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Torino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Atalanta · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brighton win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 90% and over 2.5 goals at 94%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.