Amex Stadium · Referee A. Soneye · Analysis updated 15:18 UTC
Brighton W vs Aston Villa W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for Brighton W and 0.96 for Aston Villa W, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Brighton W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brighton W win
60.2% probability
Expected goals
1.94 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brighton W home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aston Villa W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brighton W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 22% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.94 goals for Brighton W and 0.96 for Aston Villa W, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.7%
- 2–010.4%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 47.2% vs market 42.4%, edge +4.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.4% | 47.2% | 2.12 | +4.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.50 | 37.9% | 39.7% | 2.52 | +1.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 21.6% | 21.6% | 4.63 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.1% | 18.1% | 5.52 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.50 | 60.3% | 60.2% | 1.66 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 79.0% | 78.3% | 1.28 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 83.1% | 81.8% | 1.22 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.6% | 52.8% | 1.89 | -4.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Brighton W
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs London City Lionesses W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Charlton Athletic W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham City W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal W · 0-1 (L)
Aston Villa W
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham Hotspur W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton W · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FA WSL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Chelsea W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 16 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Manchester United W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 6 | Everton W | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Liverpool W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Arsenal W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | West Ham W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 10 | Aston Villa W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -7 | 6 |
| 12 | Brighton W | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Birmingham City W | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brighton W win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.