Franco Fanuzzi · Analysis updated 20:18 UTC
Brindisi vs Ebolitana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Brindisi and 0.76 for Ebolitana, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Brindisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Brindisi win
58.1% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brindisi home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brindisi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 25% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Brindisi and 0.76 for Ebolitana, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–09.2%
Recent form
Brindisi
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nardò · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nocerina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Normanna · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Francavilla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Turris · 1-2 (L)
Ebolitana
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martina Franca | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Turris | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Virtus Francavilla | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Bisceglie | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Brindisi | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Manfredonia | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Gravina | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 8 | Nocerina | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Real Normanna | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | USD Palmese | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Fidelis Andria | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Gladiator | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Ebolitana | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | Melfi | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Real Forio 2014 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Ischia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Francavilla | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Nardò | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brindisi win, at 58.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.