Stadio Franco Fanuzzi · Analysis updated 10:10 UTC
Brindisi vs Francavilla Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Brindisi and 0.70 for Francavilla, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Brindisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brindisi win
53.5% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brindisi home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Francavilla away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.1%
- 0–012.3%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–011.9%
- 0–18.6%
Recent form
Brindisi
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nardò · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nocerina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Normanna · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Francavilla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Turris · 1-2 (L)
Francavilla
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Forio 2014 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Gravina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Gladiator · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Martina Franca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Brindisi · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · Brindisi 1-0 Francavilla (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2025-05-04T13:00:00.000Z · Brindisi 0-0 Francavilla (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2024-12-22T13:30:00.000Z · Brindisi 0-1 Francavilla (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2023-01-08T14:00:00.000Z · Brindisi 0-0 Francavilla (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2022-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · Brindisi 2-0 Francavilla (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2022-01-30T13:30:00.000Z · Brindisi 2-1 Francavilla (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2021-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · Brindisi 1-2 Francavilla (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2019-11-24T14:00:00.000Z · Brindisi 1-2 Francavilla (Serie D - Girone H)
Serie D - Girone H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Francavilla | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Martina Franca | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Turris | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Brindisi | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Bisceglie | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Gravina | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Manfredonia | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Nocerina | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Fidelis Andria | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Gladiator | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Real Normanna | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | USD Palmese | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Ebolitana | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Francavilla | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Melfi | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Real Forio 2014 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Ischia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Nardò | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brindisi win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.