Stadio Franco Fanuzzi · Analysis updated 15:41 UTC
Brindisi vs Nardò Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Brindisi and 0.76 for Nardò, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Brindisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brindisi win
62.2% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brindisi home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nardò away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brindisi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 23% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Brindisi and 0.76 for Nardò, a combined 2.56 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.7%
Recent form
Brindisi
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nocerina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Normanna · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Francavilla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Turris · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus Francavilla · 1-2 (L)
Nardò
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gravina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs USD Palmese · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Martina Franca · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Ischia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Melfi · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Francavilla | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 |
| 2 | Martina Franca | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Turris | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Bisceglie | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Brindisi | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Manfredonia | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Gravina | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 8 | Nocerina | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Real Normanna | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | USD Palmese | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Fidelis Andria | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Gladiator | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Ebolitana | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | Real Forio 2014 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Melfi | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Ischia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Francavilla | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Nardò | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brindisi win, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.