Nogometni park Brinje · Referee D. Novarlic · Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
Brinje-Grosuplje vs Nafta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Brinje-Grosuplje and 1.76 for Nafta, a combined total of 3.36. That distribution gives Nafta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brinje-Grosuplje home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nafta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 35% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Brinje-Grosuplje and 1.76 for Nafta, a combined 3.36 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.1%
Recent form
Brinje-Grosuplje
- 2026-09-20T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Radomlje · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Nafta · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Olimpija Ljubljana · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Celje · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Aluminij · 2-4 (L)
Nafta
- 2026-09-04T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Radomlje · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Maribor · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Olimpija Ljubljana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Celje · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Aluminij · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 23 |
| 2 | Koper | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Bravo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Nafta | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Celje | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | Mura | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | Radomlje | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.