Brinkumer SV vs Grohn Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Brinkumer SV and 1.15 for Grohn, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Brinkumer SV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Brinkumer SV win

74.5% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.00 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Brinkumer SV home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grohn away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brinkumer SV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 14% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Brinkumer SV and 1.15 for Grohn, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Brinkumer SV win75%

Draw14%

Grohn win12%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

26%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals59%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

2–18.2%
3–18.2%
2–07.1%
3–07.1%
4–16.1%

Recent form

Brinkumer SV

2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs BTS Neustadt · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen III · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Geestemünde · 7-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Blumenthaler SV · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vatan Sport · 2-0 (W)

Grohn

2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs BTS Neustadt · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen III · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Geestemünde · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Blumenthaler SV · 2-5 (L)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vatan Sport · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Bremen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hemelingen	10	9	1	0	37	28
2	Blumenthaler SV	10	9	0	1	29	27
3	Brinkumer SV	10	9	0	1	26	27
4	OSC Bremerhaven	10	7	1	2	28	22
5	Aumund-Vegesack	10	5	2	3	9	17
6	Geestemünde	10	4	2	4	-3	14
7	Schwachhausen	10	4	2	4	-6	14
8	Vatan Sport	10	4	1	5	-4	13
9	Union Bremen	10	3	3	4	-3	12
10	Eiche Horn	10	3	3	4	-11	12
11	Leher TS	10	3	2	5	5	11
12	Grohn	10	3	1	6	-20	10
13	BTS Neustadt	10	3	0	7	-14	9
14	Oberneuland	10	1	2	7	-29	5
15	Werder Bremen III	10	1	1	8	-17	4
16	Woltmershausen	10	1	1	8	-27	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Brinkumer SV win, at 74.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.