Brinkumer SV vs Werder Bremen III Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Brinkumer SV and 0.95 for Werder Bremen III, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Brinkumer SV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Brinkumer SV win

68.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.35 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Brinkumer SV home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Werder Bremen III away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Brinkumer SV win69%

Draw18%

Werder Bremen III win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

2–010.2%
2–19.7%
1–08.7%
1–18.2%
3–08.0%

Recent form

Brinkumer SV

2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs BTS Neustadt · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen III · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Geestemünde · 7-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Blumenthaler SV · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vatan Sport · 2-0 (W)

Werder Bremen III

2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Leher TS · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Grohn · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BTS Neustadt · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Schwachhausen · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Geestemünde · 2-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-29T17:00:00.000Z · Brinkumer SV 2-2 Werder Bremen III (Oberliga - Bremen)
2025-11-15T13:00:00.000Z · Brinkumer SV 3-5 Werder Bremen III (Oberliga - Bremen)
2025-03-02T14:00:00.000Z · Brinkumer SV 3-2 Werder Bremen III (Oberliga - Bremen)
2024-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · Brinkumer SV 2-2 Werder Bremen III (Oberliga - Bremen)
2023-02-11T12:00:00.000Z · Brinkumer SV 1-1 Werder Bremen III (Oberliga - Bremen)
2022-09-03T12:00:00.000Z · Brinkumer SV 3-0 Werder Bremen III (Oberliga - Bremen)
2022-03-26T13:00:00.000Z · Brinkumer SV 4-0 Werder Bremen III (Oberliga - Bremen)
2021-10-23T11:00:00.000Z · Brinkumer SV 4-1 Werder Bremen III (Oberliga - Bremen)

Oberliga - Bremen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hemelingen	10	9	1	0	37	28
2	Blumenthaler SV	10	9	0	1	29	27
3	Brinkumer SV	10	9	0	1	26	27
4	OSC Bremerhaven	10	7	1	2	28	22
5	Aumund-Vegesack	10	5	2	3	9	17
6	Geestemünde	10	4	2	4	-3	14
7	Schwachhausen	10	4	2	4	-6	14
8	Vatan Sport	10	4	1	5	-4	13
9	Union Bremen	10	3	3	4	-3	12
10	Eiche Horn	10	3	3	4	-11	12
11	Leher TS	10	3	2	5	5	11
12	Grohn	10	3	1	6	-20	10
13	BTS Neustadt	10	3	0	7	-14	9
14	Oberneuland	10	1	2	7	-29	5
15	Werder Bremen III	10	1	1	8	-17	4
16	Woltmershausen	10	1	1	8	-27	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Brinkumer SV win, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.