Brisbane Roar II vs Moreton City Excelsior Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.52 expected goals for Brisbane Roar II and 2.53 for Moreton City Excelsior, a combined total of 4.06. That distribution gives Moreton City Excelsior the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Moreton City Excelsior win

59.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.52 – 2.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Brisbane Roar II home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Moreton City Excelsior away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Moreton City Excelsior to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 22% / 18% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.52 goals for Brisbane Roar II and 2.53 for Moreton City Excelsior, a combined 4.06 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Brisbane Roar II win22%

Draw18%

Moreton City Excelsior win60%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals58%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–28.5%
1–37.1%
1–16.7%
2–26.4%
0–25.6%

Recent form

Brisbane Roar II

2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Gold Coast Knights · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-07T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Lions · 2-4 (L)
2026-08-02T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Moreton City Excelsior · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-19T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-10T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Rochedale Rovers · 4-1 (W)

Moreton City Excelsior

2026-09-05T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Peninsula Power · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-29T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Gold Coast Knights · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Lions · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-02T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Brisbane Roar II · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Queensland NPL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lions	22	17	2	3	35	53
2	Peninsula Power	22	13	6	3	22	45
3	Moreton City Excelsior	22	12	3	7	16	39
4	Gold Coast Knights	22	11	5	6	14	38
5	Brisbane City	22	9	7	6	-1	34
6	WDSC Wolves	22	9	6	7	-4	33
7	Eastern Suburbs	22	9	2	11	-1	29
8	Olympic	22	8	2	12	-4	26
9	Magic United	22	7	1	14	-26	22
10	Rochedale Rovers	22	6	3	13	-18	21
11	Gold Coast United	22	6	2	14	-13	20
12	Brisbane Roar II	22	5	1	16	-20	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Moreton City Excelsior win, at 59.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.