Ashton Gate Stadium · Referee David Webb · Analysis updated 18:42 UTC
Bristol City vs Blackburn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Bristol City and 0.92 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Bristol City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.4% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bristol City home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Blackburn away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bristol City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 29% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Bristol City and 0.92 for Blackburn, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.3%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–011.6%
- 0–110.7%
- 2–08.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 57.4% vs market 47.3%, edge +10.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 57.4% | 1.74 | +10.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.15 | 43.0% | 43.3% | 2.31 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 28.9% | 29.1% | 3.44 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 56.5% | 56.7% | 1.76 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.9% | 70.9% | 1.41 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.6% | 72.4% | 1.38 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 28.0% | 27.6% | 3.62 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 42.6% | 2.35 | -10.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bristol City
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Charlton · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Watford · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton · 1-4 (L)
Blackburn
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Portsmouth · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Preston · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.