Ashton Gate Stadium · Referee A. Keir · Analysis updated 10:02 UTC
Bristol City W vs Newcastle United W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Bristol City W and 1.92 for Newcastle United W, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Newcastle United W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Newcastle United W win
59.5% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bristol City W home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Newcastle United W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.6%
- 1–110.3%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.5%
Recent form
Bristol City W
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield United W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United W · 2-1 (W)
Newcastle United W
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Durham W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Leicester City FC W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield United W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City W · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · Bristol City W 0-1 Newcastle United W (Women's Championship)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · Bristol City W 2-1 Newcastle United W (Women's Championship)
- 2025-10-12T13:00:00.000Z · Bristol City W 2-2 Newcastle United W (Women's Championship)
- 2025-03-02T14:00:00.000Z · Bristol City W 2-3 Newcastle United W (Women's Championship)
- 2024-11-10T14:00:00.000Z · Bristol City W 2-0 Newcastle United W (Women's Championship)
Women's Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United W | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Sunderland W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Ipswich Town W | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Nottingham Forest W | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton W | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Bristol City W | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Southampton W | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Leicester City FC W | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 9 | Sheffield United W | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Watford W | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 11 | Burnley W | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
| 12 | Durham W | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Newcastle United W win, at 59.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.