· Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Bristol Manor Farm vs Moneyfields Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Bristol Manor Farm and 1.45 for Moneyfields, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Bristol Manor Farm the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bristol Manor Farm home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Moneyfields away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bristol Manor Farm to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 24% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Bristol Manor Farm and 1.45 for Moneyfields, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.9%
- 1–07.5%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Bristol Manor Farm
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Moneyfields · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bishop's Cleeve · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Newport County · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Winchester City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:22.000Z · H vs Brixham · 1-1 (D)
Moneyfields
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wimborne Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bristol Manor Farm · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Steyning Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Westfield (Surrey) · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs South Park · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.