Memorial Stadium · Analysis updated 15:07 UTC
Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Bristol Rovers and 1.16 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Bristol Rovers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bristol Rovers win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bristol Rovers home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Swindon Town away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bristol Rovers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Bristol Rovers and 1.16 for Swindon Town, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Bristol Rovers
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wycombe · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crewe · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Exeter City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gillingham · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Grimsby · 0-2 (L)
Swindon Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rochdale · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Accrington ST · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Newport County · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salford City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace U21 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Accrington ST | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bristol Rovers win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.