Old Road · Referee T. Owen · Analysis updated 04:11 UTC
Briton Ferry vs Trefelin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for Briton Ferry and 0.96 for Trefelin, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Briton Ferry the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Briton Ferry win
60.2% probability
Expected goals
1.94 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Briton Ferry home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trefelin away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.7%
- 2–010.4%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 47.2% vs market 43.0%, edge +4.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.0% | 47.2% | 2.12 | +4.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.40 | 39.3% | 39.7% | 2.52 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 21.6% | 21.6% | 4.63 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.1% | 18.1% | 5.52 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.50 | 60.3% | 60.2% | 1.66 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 82.1% | 81.8% | 1.22 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.6% | 78.3% | 1.28 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.0% | 52.8% | 1.89 | -4.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Briton Ferry
- 2026-10-23T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Caernarfon Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Afan United · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs GAP Connah S Quay FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Colwyn Bay · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Holywell · 1-1 (D)
Trefelin
- 2026-10-23T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Flint Town United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Llantwit Major · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff MET · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Airbus UK · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs The New Saints · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · Briton Ferry 1-1 Trefelin (Premier League)
- 2024-04-01T16:30:00.000Z · Briton Ferry 2-0 Trefelin (FAW Championship)
- 2023-08-08T18:30:00.000Z · Briton Ferry 5-0 Trefelin (FAW Championship)
- 2023-01-06T19:30:00.000Z · Briton Ferry 2-0 Trefelin (FAW Championship)
- 2022-10-29T13:30:00.000Z · Briton Ferry 4-1 Trefelin (FAW Championship)
- 2022-01-29T14:30:00.000Z · Briton Ferry 2-2 Trefelin (FAW Championship)
- 2021-09-10T18:30:00.000Z · Briton Ferry 3-1 Trefelin (FAW Championship)
- 2021-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · Briton Ferry 0-3 Trefelin (Welsh Cup)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 47 | 40 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 34 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 29 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 26 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 7 | Airbus UK | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 24 |
| 8 | Cardiff MET | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 12 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -31 | 9 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -25 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -30 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Briton Ferry win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.