· Analysis updated 12:01 UTC
Brixham vs Dorchester Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Brixham and 1.26 for Dorchester Town, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives Brixham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brixham home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dorchester Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brixham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 25% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Brixham and 1.26 for Dorchester Town, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–27.3%
Recent form
Brixham
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorchester Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tiverton Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Club Inkberrow · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:22.000Z · A vs Bristol Manor Farm · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:22.000Z · A vs Bashley · 0-2 (L)
Dorchester Town
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxford City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brixham · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Larkhall Athletic · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sholing · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hungerford Town · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.