Nikiforides Family Park · Analysis updated 13:46 UTC
Broadbeach United vs St George Willawong Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.30 expected goals for Broadbeach United and 0.46 for St George Willawong, a combined total of 3.76. That distribution gives Broadbeach United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 90%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 90% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Broadbeach United win
89.9% probability
Expected goals
3.30 – 0.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Broadbeach United home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
St George Willawong away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Broadbeach United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 90%, against 90% / 8% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.30 goals for Broadbeach United and 0.46 for St George Willawong, a combined 3.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
10%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–014.0%
- 2–012.7%
- 4–011.5%
- 1–07.7%
- 5–07.6%
Recent form
Broadbeach United
- 2026-09-05T05:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Wanderers · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Brisbane Strikers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-15T06:15:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T06:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Wanderers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-31T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Logan Lightning · 1-0 (W)
St George Willawong
- 2026-08-15T06:15:00.000Z · H vs SC Wanderers · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-09T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Logan Lightning · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-02T06:30:00.000Z · H vs Brisbane Strikers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Caboolture · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-11T06:30:00.000Z · H vs Robina City · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Queensland Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Strikers | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 54 |
| 2 | Broadbeach United | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 31 | 52 |
| 3 | SC Wanderers | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 37 |
| 4 | Ipswich | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 35 |
| 5 | Robina City | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 32 |
| 6 | Caboolture | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 31 |
| 7 | Redlands United | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 8 | Holland Park Hawks | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -8 | 30 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -2 | 27 |
| 10 | North Star | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -19 | 21 |
| 11 | St George Willawong | 22 | 4 | 1 | 17 | -39 | 13 |
| 12 | Capalaba | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | -36 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Broadbeach United win, at 89.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 90% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.