Brodd vs Åkra Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Brodd and 1.55 for Åkra, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Brodd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Brodd win

53.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.25 – 1.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Brodd home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brodd to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 20% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Brodd and 1.55 for Åkra, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 70%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Brodd win54%

Draw20%

Åkra win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

2–18.8%
1–17.8%
2–26.8%
3–16.6%
1–26.0%

Recent form

Brodd

2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Madla · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vindbjart · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Våg · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Staal Jørpeland · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Varhaug · 0-3 (L)

Åkra

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Madla	22	13	6	3	30	45
2	Mandalskameratene	22	13	4	5	21	43
3	Flekkerøy	22	12	3	7	9	39
4	Vindbjart	22	12	2	8	24	38
5	Varhaug	22	10	6	6	7	36
6	Viking II	22	9	5	8	19	32
7	Stabæk II	22	9	3	10	-2	30
8	Brodd	22	9	3	10	-2	30
9	Våg	22	9	2	11	-3	29
10	Staal Jørpeland	22	7	5	10	-9	26
11	Odd II	22	7	5	10	-11	26
12	Hinna	22	6	5	11	-21	23
13	Haugesund II	22	6	4	12	-23	22
14	Åkra	22	4	3	15	-39	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Brodd win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.