Bromsgrove Sporting vs Leamington Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for Bromsgrove Sporting and 0.88 for Leamington, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Bromsgrove Sporting the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bromsgrove Sporting win

63.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.97 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bromsgrove Sporting home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leamington away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bromsgrove Sporting to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 21% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for Bromsgrove Sporting and 0.88 for Leamington, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bromsgrove Sporting win63%

Draw21%

Leamington win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–011.4%
2–011.3%
1–110.0%
2–19.9%
3–07.4%

Recent form

Bromsgrove Sporting

2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bury Town · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nuneaton Town · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Worcester City · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Stortford · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Redditch United · 2-1 (W)

Leamington

2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bromsgrove Sporting · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Quorn · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Gainsborough Trinity · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainsborough Trinity · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bishop's Stortford · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2024-02-03T15:00:00.000Z · Bromsgrove Sporting 0-3 Leamington (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
2023-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · Bromsgrove Sporting 0-2 Leamington (Non League Premier - Southern Central)

Non League Premier - Southern Central table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Bedford	12	10	2	0	23	32
2	Bury Town	13	10	1	2	8	31
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	8	3	1	10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	9	0	5	9	27
5	Needham Market	13	7	2	4	9	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	6	5	2	7	23
7	Kettering Town	12	6	4	2	13	22
8	Alvechurch	11	6	3	2	12	21
9	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	4	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	4	5	4	3	17
11	Halesowen Town	11	5	2	4	-3	17
12	Stourbridge	12	4	4	4	-2	16
13	Redditch United	11	3	5	3	1	14
14	Banbury United	13	3	4	6	-7	13
15	Leiston	11	3	3	5	-4	12
16	Stratford Town	12	2	5	5	-8	11
17	Leamington	13	2	4	7	-6	10
18	Bishop's Stortford	12	3	1	8	-8	10
19	Hitchin Town	13	2	4	7	-8	10
20	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	-8	7
21	Leighton Town	12	1	2	9	-13	5
22	Stamford	13	0	1	12	-32	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bromsgrove Sporting win, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.