Brøndby Stadion · Referee M. Redder · Analysis updated 11:37 UTC
Brondby vs FC Copenhagen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Brondby and 1.30 for FC Copenhagen, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives FC Copenhagen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brondby home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Copenhagen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.8%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–28.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 51.5% vs market 40.3%, edge +11.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.3% | 51.5% | 1.94 | +11.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.67 | 56.6% | 58.9% | 1.70 | +2.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.90 | 31.3% | 31.4% | 3.18 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.5% | 27.5% | 3.64 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.20 | 41.2% | 41.1% | 2.43 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.3% | 72.5% | 1.38 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.35 | 70.1% | 68.6% | 1.46 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.7% | 48.5% | 2.06 | -11.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Brondby
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Odense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyngby · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Sirius · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Copenhagen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vejle · 2-1 (W)
FC Copenhagen
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Midtjylland · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brondby · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · Brondby 0-1 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
- 2026-05-21T16:30:00.000Z · Brondby 1-3 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
- 2025-11-23T11:00:00.000Z · Brondby 0-1 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
- 2025-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · Brondby 2-1 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
- 2025-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · Brondby 0-3 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
- 2025-04-13T12:00:00.000Z · Brondby 2-1 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
- 2024-10-27T10:00:00.000Z · Brondby 0-0 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
- 2024-09-01T12:00:00.000Z · Brondby 1-3 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
- 2024-05-12T14:00:00.000Z · Brondby 1-3 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
- 2024-04-01T12:00:00.000Z · Brondby 2-1 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 25 |
| 3 | Viborg | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Brondby | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 19 |
| 6 | AC Horsens | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Odense | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 8 | Silkeborg | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Randers FC | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 11 |
| 10 | Aarhus | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Sonderjyske | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | Lyngby | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.