Brøndby Stadium · Referee F. Svendsen · Analysis updated 17:21 UTC
Brondby vs Sonderjyske Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Brondby and 0.50 for Sonderjyske, a combined total of 1.65. That distribution gives Brondby the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brondby win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brondby home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sonderjyske away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–022.1%
- 0–019.2%
- 2–012.7%
- 1–111.0%
- 0–19.6%
Recent form
Brondby
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Odense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyngby · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Sirius · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Copenhagen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vejle · 2-1 (W)
Sonderjyske
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Randers FC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AB Copenhagen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyngby · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Horsens · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Thisted FC · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-17T17:00:00.000Z · Brondby 3-2 Sonderjyske (Superliga)
- 2026-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · Brondby 0-3 Sonderjyske (Superliga)
- 2026-04-17T17:00:00.000Z · Brondby 6-0 Sonderjyske (Superliga)
- 2026-02-23T18:00:00.000Z · Brondby 0-0 Sonderjyske (Superliga)
- 2025-08-24T14:00:00.000Z · Brondby 0-2 Sonderjyske (Superliga)
- 2024-11-24T15:00:00.000Z · Brondby 2-2 Sonderjyske (Superliga)
- 2024-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · Brondby 2-0 Sonderjyske (Superliga)
- 2022-02-28T18:00:00.000Z · Brondby 1-0 Sonderjyske (Superliga)
- 2021-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Brondby 0-1 Sonderjyske (Superliga)
- 2021-06-28T12:00:00.000Z · Brondby 4-1 Sonderjyske (Friendlies Clubs)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 25 |
| 3 | Viborg | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Brondby | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 19 |
| 6 | AC Horsens | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Odense | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 8 | Silkeborg | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Randers FC | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 11 |
| 10 | Aarhus | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Sonderjyske | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | Lyngby | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brondby win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.