· Analysis updated 00:13 UTC
Brora Rangers vs Cowdenbeath Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.02 expected goals for Brora Rangers and 1.07 for Cowdenbeath, a combined total of 4.09. That distribution gives Brora Rangers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brora Rangers win
76.5% probability
Expected goals
3.02 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brora Rangers home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cowdenbeath away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brora Rangers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 13% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.02 goals for Brora Rangers and 1.07 for Cowdenbeath, a combined 4.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 3–07.7%
- 2–07.7%
- 4–16.2%
Recent form
Brora Rangers
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fraserburgh · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nairn County · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Forres Mechanics · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rothes · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Keith · 5-0 (W)
Cowdenbeath
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Clyde · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hamilton Academical · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lochee United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs East Stirlingshire · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hill Of Beath Hawthorn · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brora Rangers win, at 76.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.